Auto sales are expected to drop again in April compared with a year ago. But analysts said they could stabilize, or even come in slightly higher compared with March.
While that would be good news for the U.S. auto industry battered by weak consumer confidence and meager lending, industry experts also say it's too early to say whether the market is ready to rebound yet.
The picture could become clearer in the next five weeks, as the fates of Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. are determined, and if Congress passes the "cash for clunkers" bill, which could boost sales by paying people to trade in their old models for more fuel-efficient vehicles.
"It's going to be a balancing act," said Jesse Toprak, executive director of industry analysis at Edmunds.com.
As for April, automakers are to release their monthly sales numbers Friday. Analysts expect U.S. light-vehicle sales to fall by about 31% compared with April 2008.
According to Edmunds' forecast, Chrysler will lead the decline, with a 39% drop in sales, followed by GM, with a 36% drop and Ford, with a 27% decline. Japanese automakers are expected to report declines of 27% to 40%.
Into May and June, dealers will have to deal not only with waning consumer confidence, but also the fallout from moves to restructure GM and Chrysler.
Some dealers say they expect their own sales to fall further as part of those plans. GM for instance, plans to eliminate four brands, including Pontiac.
"It will make a 40% difference on my sales," said Russ Shelton, owner of Shelton Pontiac Buick GMC.
GM announced Monday plans to ax the storied Pontiac brand and said it will stop making Hummer, Saab and Saturn vehicles this year.
But Toprak said pent-up demand -- boosted by incentives and the proposed cash for clunkers program -- might move people to purchase vehicles.
"If something becomes cheap enough, buyers come out and they might surprise you," he said.
